China observes Trump’s strategy in Ukraine and strengthens ties with Russia

Three years after the start of Russian aggression in Ukraine, China closely follows the strategy of US President Donald Trump to end the war, while Beijing calculates his movements to position himself as a strategic partner for Ukraine and at the same time maintain an association Without limits with Russia, according to experts and former officials.

French president Emmanuel Macron arrived in Washington this week, when British Prime Minister Keir Starmer also does. Both will dialogue with Trump and senior officials of their administration, after the direct conversations of February 18 between the White House and the Kremlin in Riad, the Saudi capital.

Macron met with Trump on Monday morning at the White House for a meeting that lasted almost two hours. Both leaders participated in a videoconference with other G7 leaders about Ukraine.

The Chinese president, Xi Jinping, spoke Monday with the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, who informed XI about Riad’s conversations and reaffirmed the «integral strategic association» between Russia and China. A Chinese statement said: «China welcomes the positive efforts made by Russia and the relevant parties to resolve the crisis.»

«Crisis» but no war

For three years, Chinese officials have said that Beijing «will play a constructive role» in the «political solution of the crisis», refraining from using the term «Ukraine War» to describe Russia’s aggression since February 24, 2022 .

Beijing also praised recent conversations between the United States and Russia, during which Ukraine was not present.

China and Ukraine «established a strategic association in 2011. … In recent years, China has been the largest commercial partner in Ukraine,» said Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, to the Minister of Foreign Affairs Ukrainian, Andrii Sybiha , on February 15 outside the Munich Security Conference.

«Regarding the Ukrainian crisis … China has always worked for peace and promoted conversations,» said Wang. It should be noted that the Chinese version of the meeting did not mention the sovereignty or territorial integrity of Ukraine.

On February 20, two days after the conversations between the United States and Russia, Wang held personal conversations with the Minister of Foreign Affairs Russ Riad. Wang reaffirmed the «Integral Strategic Association» of China with Russia.

Wang said that China «supports» all efforts dedicated to peace, including «the recent consensus between the United States and Russia» in Riad.

Conversations, no negotiations

The United States Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, said that Riad’s conversations (the first between Washington and Moscow in years) were not negotiations aimed at reaching an agreement on Ukraine, despite the concerns of Ukraine and the European countries of They were being marginalized.

He said that the conversations aimed to determine whether the Russians were serious about the end of the war.

In a measured tone, Rubio described the conversations – which lasted more than four hours – as steps towards the establishment of «lines of communication» on bilateral matters between the United States and Russia. Among those efforts is the goal of achieving «some normality in our missions and their ability to function.»

Some analysts said that Beijing is nervous about the restoration of relations between the United States and Russia.

«While a complete approach might not be on the horizon, they are nervous because if Trump raises the sanctions to Russia, then the Moscow dependence on China will decrease,» Free Europe/Radio Liberty Dennis Wilder told Radio Free Europe, who was an important advisor of the White House about China by former US president George W. Bush.

But others warned that the United States ran the risk of reinforcing China’s global information campaign, which portrays Washington as an unreliable ally.

The retired backward Mark Montgomery, defense analyst of the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies (FDD) based in Washington, said: «We immediately reveal the influence we had» and «we mistakenly attribute who the aggressor was» while we hurried to enter into Conversations with the Russians.

China, «tripping over this good news,» he certainly gets the benefit, Montgomery said in a recent web seminar organized by FDD.

«I have no doubt that China’s diplomats are whispering in ears around the world about the lack of reliability of Americans and, unfortunately, this administration» is giving them some points of conversation, «said Bradley Bowman, senior director of the center of military and political power in the FDD, during the Web Seminar.

Experts are skeptical

A spokesman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry refused to comment if China would consider sending peace maintenance forces to Ukraine after the conflict ends.

It is expected that XI and Putin exchange visits to Moscow and Beijing at the end of this year. Both held a virtual meeting on January 21. In addition, XI received a Putin phone call on the afternoon of February 24.

Some American former officials are skeptical about the degree to which the Chinese government is really willing to act to stop Russia’s war against Ukraine. They believe that China can use the issue as a lever in their treatment with Trump.

“I think the Chinese will analyze the issue of Ukraine and offer some help to Trump. «They probably will not do much and then proclaim to be successful,» said Evan Medeiros, director of the Asian Studies Program of the University of Georgetown, during a recent podcast with the Indo-Pacific program of German Marshall Fund. Medeiros was a member of the National Security Council of the White House between 2009 and 2015.

“Everything that is of their direct material interest, such as helping to rebuild Ukraine, will accept it. But, of course, that has nothing to do with encouraging Russia to reach a peace agreement. It is about ensuring that Chinese infrastructure companies obtain many large and juicy contracts, ”added Medeiros.

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