Expert disassembles the proclaimed anti -inflationary advance in Cuba and alert about «mass poverty»

Cuban economist Pedro Monreal questioned this Saturday the proclaimed «progress» to control inflation in Cuba, which have celebrated regime officials in recent days.

From his social networks, the expert said that inflation «started strong in Cuba in January 2025 with a monthly increase of 2.06%, equivalent to an annualized rate of 27.7%.»

In his opinion, it is a very high level that denotes «government disability to provide the necessary macroeconomic balance.»

Out of control

Monreal warns that the indicators could actually be worse: «inflation accelerated in the last 5 months, indicating that it is still out of control, especially when not a few economists consider that the official Cuban measurement undervalues ​​the real level of the inflation of the country «.

«There was a moderation of the interannual measurement of inflation (24.23% in January 2025 vs. 31.69% in January 2024), but since November 2023 it remains around 20% to 32%, a High level that questions the official “progress” account anti -inflation, «said the economist.

Manuel Marrero Cruz, Prime Minister of Cuba, affirmed weeks ago, in a review of the so -called «Government Plan to correct distortions and reimpulse the economy», which inflation reflects a «slight deceleration», but «still continues to be high» .

Monreal said that inflation is “halted” mainly due to the increase in the price of non -alcoholic foods and beverages and ensures that, except for three months of 2024 and three in the previous year, it remained at 50% in the case of these products.

In January 2025, the price of «alcoholic and tobacco drinks» registered an unusual high effect on monthly inflation, reflecting an extraordinary monthly increase of 22.72% in prices of relatively broad consumer products, although they do not respond to basic needs, he said The expert.

Mass poverty

In his opinion, beyond the official story about «stops» and «pricing», «the dike that seems to be containing even greater inflation is the» normalization «of mass poverty related to brutal compression of the weight of remuneration of work as % of GDP «.

Marrero Cruz acknowledged that the inflationary process «has sustained the purchasing capacity of wages, pensions and benefits of social assistance» to the citizens of the island.

In 2024, the extreme poverty climbed in Cuba until it covered 89% of the population, according to the VII Report on “The State of Social Rights in Cuba” prepared by the Cuban Observatory of Human Rights (OCDH).

This same month the British newspaper The Times He referred to the serious crisis that Cubans are going through and described an «hungry and ruins» island, from which one in ten people have escaped.

The conservative court publication considers that the economic recession of recent years was the result of a “polysis” caused, among other factors, by inflation, pandemic and several failed experiments to reform the economy.

The report Preliminary balance of the economies of Latin America and the Caribbean 2024presented by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) indicates that by 2025, Cuba will register a decrease of 0.1 % of its GDP. The country appears next to Haiti among the worst economies of the region.