Black Monday in the bags: Trump’s tariff

The president of USA It has no intention of backing or correcting the course of its commercial policy. The markets, either. After a dramatic week in the Bags Of the world, with the two worst consecutive days since the crisis of 2008, but also fatal in the currencies or the price of commodities and even cryptocurrencies, with the destruction of more than 6.5 billion dollars only in the sessions of Thursday and Friday, everything points to a new black Monday in Europe and the US.

He S&P 500 17% have collapsed since its February maximum, and is about to enter what is called a bearish market. Goldman Sachs He raised on Sunday from 20% to 35%, and a few hours after 35% to 45% the probabilities of a recession in the next 12 months, but specifying that if on Wednesday all the promised tariffs enter into force, their base scenario will become a safe recession that would force the Fed To change their plans and lower up to 2 points interest rates, compared to 0.50% planned in 2025. And the indicators anticipate a new day of losses and chaos, with sensations increasingly similar to those of 2008, but with the difference that now the main government involved does not fight to avoid disaster, but pushes towards it.

During the weekend, Trump, busy in golf tournaments in his fields of Floridahas remained silent, completely alien or indifferent to the unleashed storm. Until getting into the plane back to Washington on Sunday night, when he has said that sometimes to cure a disease, medicine is needed, however unpleasant it may be. «The tariffs, who are now bringing tens of billions of dollars to the US, are in force and are something beautiful to see. Someday people will realize that tariffs, for the United States of America, are very beautiful! ”He said bending the bet of his challenge.

«I have spoken with many leaders, Europeans and Asians around the world. They die for reaching an agreement. But I told them that we are not going to have deficits with their country. We are not going to do it because, for me, a deficit is a loss. We will have surpluses or, in the worst case, we will reach the equilibrium point (…) I was chosen by this. Tariffs next year will make us win a billion dollars, in addition to the billion dollars that thousands of companies will already relocate in the United States (…) It is unsustainable for us to allow China to have surpluses of one billion dollars; We will receive more than one billion dollars in the next short term (…) What will happen to the market? I cannot tell it, but I can assure you that our country has strengthened a lot and, over time, it will be a country like no other. It will be the economically more dominant country, ”the president told journalists aboard Air Force One.

Also the economic lieutenants of the administration multiplied in all the television programs on Sunday to try to calm investors and families, ensuring that everything is under control, discarding that the country walks towards a recession, that inflation will rebound or that the economy is in danger.

But the result was not the desired one. In the early morning in Asia or Oceania, the negative trend marked from the moment the White House announced its brutal tariffs for all its commercial partners, friends or enemies, has remained.

Tokyo opened with a 7.35%drop, causing regulators to interrupt futures contributions. Sydney suffered losses of 6% and Hong Kong and Taipei They brushed the two digits in the opening. Something expected because as the notes of analysts and investment banks on Saturday, Asian economies are the greats exposed to reprisals between China and the United States, as both are everyone’s main commercial partners. The actions of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, the world’s largest chips manufacturer, fell the same, almost 10%, while Foxconn, the main manufacturer for Apple, left more than 9%.

In Hong Kong, Chinese technological giants Alibaba, Tencent and Xiaomi They collapsed for the third consecutive day, such as Samsung or Nintendo. And the quotes seem to suggest that directly directly, China has started a discreet devaluation so that Yuan does not win too much strength against a weaker dollar.

The prospects for Wall Street, which on Thursday registered the day from the outbreak of the Covidthey were not so pronounced, but in the ranges already seen. As soon as Dow Jones began to operate, they dropped 4.4%; those of the S&P 500 5%; those of the Nasdaq, the index of technological ones, 5.3%; and those of the Russell 2000, 7%, before momentarily stabilize all around 3%. The sinking also arrived on the weekend to the Crypto world, with Bitcoin losing 5% to $ 77,000, and Ether and Solana leaving almost 10%. And to oil, accumulating another 3%drop, or copper.

In the markets the attention is set on Monday in which funds they control their departures, the liquidations of coverage funds and the Swaps Spreads, the default insurance that became so famous in the crisis of the last decade. That are not in panic thresholds, but going up for the most vulnerable economies and currencies or exposed to US commercial sanctions.

Also in cascade consequences, since with this environment the options of large mergers seem scarce, while law firm and banks are prepared in case there were bankruptcies or falls. The New York Times reported this Sunday, which, as in 2007-2008, after several black sessions on the bag, the banks «have asked their clients to provide additional funds if they want to continue asking to borrow to operate; The so -called ‘Margin Calls’, which are far from the level of a generation, continue to generate restlessness, ”the newspaper warned. «It was fun as it lasted,» he wrote Daniel S. Loeba manager of Hedge Funds, in X in a publication he later deleted.

All after just two days of pure nerve in which some of the main advisors or supporters of the president have begun to distance themselves from their policies and to ask or advocate for a reverse or pause. The first was Elon Muskthe richest man in the world, already out of administration. Musk was not on Wednesday in the Rosaleda of the White House when the tariffs were announced, and over the weekend, in his social network X, he lashed out without dissimulation in several messages against Pete Navarro, the main ideologist of the tariffs in the surroundings of Trump for a decade.

The economist’s response, who has a doctorate for Harvard and that is why he is the victim of constant teasing of the businessman, was blunt: «We understand what happens, Elon sells cars,» he said, emphasizing that «he is in Texas, there they join the parts of the car and many come from China, Mexico, or electronic pieces of Japan or Taiwan. He is an entrepreneur with his interests, ”he added.

But if that were not enough, in a talk with the members of the lega, the game of Matteo Salvini In Italy, Musk was in favor of the EU and the US to stop tariffs and create a free trade zone. A huge irony given the few sympathies for the free trade of Salvini, but also because it was Trump, when he came to power when he won the 2016 elections, the one that gave the tip to the TTIP, the agreement that Brussels and the White House of Obama were unable to conclude after years of negotiations.

Another that seems to have fallen from the horse is the investor Bill AckmanTrump supporter and that in the electoral cycle helped to raise money for him, anticipating a new dawn for the US if Kamala Harris It was defeated. In a long publication in X, Ackman wrote that «the country fully supports the president in the solution of a global tariff system that has harmed it. But businesses are a trusted game, and trust depends on trust, «playing with the words» confidence «and» Trust «, which depends on credibility and respect. And he warned: «By imposing massive and disproportionate tariffs on our friends and enemies equally and thus launch a global economic war against everyone at the same time, we are in the process of destroying confidence in our country as a commercial partner, as a place to do business and as a market to invest capital. I just understood why Howard Lutnick is indifferent the stock market and economic collapse. He and singer have long -term bonds. He benefits when our economy implies ».

It is a bad idea to choose a Secretary of Commerce whose company has a fixed entry in the long term. It is a conflict of irreconcilable interests »has lashed out in another message in a frontal attack on the Secretary of Commerce, one of the weakest pieces of the administration and rival of the Treasury Secretary, Scott Besent, another former head of Hedge Fund that these days minimizes the consequences of the losses generated

The investor, speaking by many who think the same but remain silent so as not to enraged Trump, requested a 90 -day break for the application of these measures while an assumable solution is found for all parties. «The president has the opportunity on Monday to ask for a break and have the necessary time to correct an unfair tariff system. Otherwise, we go to a self -induced nuclear economic winter, and we should start protecting ourselves, ”he settled.