The impact probabilities of asteroid 2024 YR4 increase against the Earth

A recently discovered asteroid, known as 2024 YR4, has drawn the attention of the astronomical community due to its growing probability of impacting the Earth in 2032. According to the latest data provided by NASA, the space rock has a 3.1 % possibilities to collide against our planet, which makes it the most threatening asteroid ever registered by modern forecasts.

Asteroid 2024 YR4, detected for the first time in December 2023 by the El Sauce de Chile Observatory, has an estimated size of between 40 and 90 meters wide, which means that it could cause considerable damage if impacting against the earth. Astronomers have been following their career closely and calculated that the potential impact date would be December 22, 2032.

Despite the increase in impact chances, experts have urged calm, noting that the world astronomical community is closely monitoring the situation. In addition, the James Webb space telescope prepares to observe the asteroid next month, which will provide more precise data on its size, composition and trajectory.

«I have no panic,» said Bruce Betts, chief scientist of the planetary society. «Naturally, when you see that the percentages increase, you do not feel good, but as astronomers collect more data, the probability will increase before falling to zero.»

It is important to remember that the probability of impact of an asteroid is a dynamic calculation that is based on observations and measurements. As more data is collected, the accuracy of these calculations improves and probability can change significantly. In the case of 2024 YR4, it is possible that the probability of impact decreases as more observations are obtained.

The world astronomical community continues to work on the detection and monitoring of potentially dangerous asteroids as part of planetary defense efforts. The objective is to identify and characterize these objects as possible to be able to take preventive measures if necessary.