Why Brazil could benefit from the tariffs imposed by Donald Trump

In the end, despite the controversy and the official protests, Brazil could take more benefits than damages of the new tariffs imposed by the administration of Donald Trump, announced on Wednesday, which for the Latin American giant amount to 10%, half of those destined for Europe.

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In front of a market, the American, who opts for the closure route, Brazil could open new and rich markets and reinforce others already important such as China, which the US has now imposed 35%tariffs.

The US and Brazil compete as the world’s largest exporters of several crops, such as soybeans, corn and cotton. Therefore, it would be an opportunity for Brazilian producers to sell more to China, which is the largest world importer. In the US market, Brazil could also expand more strongly.

«Trump is leaving all the US demand on the table, that is, instead of consuming more than other countries, he will not do it because he imposes tariffs. So this demanded demand can be used by other countries such as ours,» explained the economist André perfeito to the G1 news portal. The first to see an opportunity was the Brazilian Minister of Agriculture, Carlos Fávaro. «Brazil has the experience and will certainly know how to take advantage of this situation and make it a great opportunity. Our country is very competitive, especially in agriculture,» he said. The fact that Brazil, like many other Latin American countries, the Trump administration intends to impose the lowest tariffs, of 10%, also subtracted drama to the news.

«The result was less bad than we could. According to US government data, the US commercial surplus with Brazil in 2024 was about 7,000 million dollars, only in goods. Adding goods and services, the surplus reached 28.6 billion dollars, the third largest of Washington in the world.

However, Lula protested before the news of the tariffs. «We will respond to any attempt at protectionism,» he said Thursday. «Brazil will not tolerate threats to democracy. It will not renounce its sovereignty. It will not greet any flag that is not green and yellow. Speak from equal to equal and respect all countries, from the poorest to the richest, but demands reciprocity in treatment. We defend multilateralism and free trade,» said the president.

In fact, the Latin American country has been applying a protectionist policy for years, especially in relation to the industrial sector. In a report by the Office of the United States Commercial Representative, which preceded the announcement of tariffs and was published on Monday, Brazilian tariffs were criticized. In particular, those applied to ethanol, American films, alcoholic beverages, telecommunications products, machinery and equipment and pork. In addition, they complained about the preference that Brazilian legislation and norms give to national producers. The US also criticized Brazil for its procedures for granting import licenses, stating that there is a lack of transparency in procedures, to the detriment of US exporters. «Footwear and clothing exporters and US car exporters have expressed concern about these non -automatic licensing requirements,» says the text. The document also criticizes that the Brazilian market is closed to fresh and frozen pork from the US, due to Brazil’s fear of African swine plague. «Brazil has not contributed scientific evidence that supports the ban and it seems to be incompatible with the international standards of the World Organization for Animal Health,» says the document.

Among the products most exported by Brazil to the United States in 2024, according to the Ministry of Development, Trade and Industry, are raw oil oils, iron, steel, coffee, frozen beef and ethanol. Brazil, for example, taxes American ethanol with 19%, while the Brazilian, before Trump’s measures, was taxed with 2.5%. For this sector, however, new tariffs do not seem to be a problem, first of all due to volumes. To the US, the Latin American country only sells 1% of its total export production, that is, 500 million liters of 38,000 million liters. In addition, most of the Brazilian ethanol, a third of which occurs in the state of San Pablo, is exported to California, which is forced to mix national ethanol with Brazilian ethanol because the latter is three times less polluting in terms of greenhouse gases.

Finally, as noted by the Organization of Associations of Sugar Caña Producers in Brazil (Orplana), which represents more than 12,000 producers from five states in the country’s center-south, the measure could push Brazil to look for other markets. Countries like Japan and South Korea have been importing Brazilian ethanol. Japan even has just increased the percentage of ethanol in gasoline to 10%, which will undoubtedly have a significant impact on the volume of Brazilian exports. Even coffee, from which the United States is a great consumer, buying Brazil 2,000 million dollars in 2024, it will be little affected by Trump’s new measures.

The Latin American country can even benefit, since one of its competitors, Vietnam, went on to have new tariffs imposed by the Trump administration of 46%. A similar argument applies to Brazilian flesh, so far taxed with 10.08%, which rises to 26.4% above the quota of 65 thousand tons. Therefore, the Brazilian Association of Meat Exporting Industries (ABIEC) said in a statement that “he believes in a closer association between Brazil and the United States, since the Americans face challenges in the livestock cycle and, for at least two years, they will need someone to guarantee volume, quality and price. And that partner is Brazil”.

More worried, however, there is the transformation industry, which has its largest market in the United States. According to data from the National Confederation of Industry (CNI) of Brazil, sales to the US in 2024 were 31.6 billion dollars, with direct effects also on employment creation and national production. The strategy is now of dialogue and negotiation. In the first half of May, the CNI will lead a business mission to the US to meet with representatives of the government and the private sector in order to discuss ways to facilitate trade and avoid protectionist measures. It will be much, therefore, on the reaction of the countries most affected by tariffs, such as the European Union, China and the countries of Southeast Asia, which can reorient part of the production destined for the United States to Latin America, starting with Brazil, which has a gigantic market. The risk is that the country is overwhelmed by a flow of cheap products. This could harm entire industrial sectors, as happened when China began to sell massively pneumatic, solar panels and steel to Brazil, at prices much lower than those of local production.

The Brazilian executive is studying countermeasures. A joint declaration of the Ministry of Development, Industry, Commerce and Services and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs also contemplates the possibility of going to the World Trade Organization (WTO). «Since the United States has registered recurring and significant commercial surpluses in goods and services with Brazil in the last 15 years, for a total of 410,000 million dollars, the unilateral imposition of an additional linear tariff of 10% to Brazil with the argument of the need to restore balance and commercial reciprocity does not reflect reality,» says the text. On Wednesday, the Chamber of Deputies approved by symbolic vote, that is, when there is no individual registration of votes, the bill that authorizes Brazil to the so -called tariff and environmental reciprocity in trade with other countries. The project had been approved by the Senate with 70 votes in favor and none against Trump’s tariffs. Many experts, however, are contrary to the route of Brazilian reprisals, because the increase in Brazilian tariffs involves an increase in imported products in Brazil. «We do not have many ways to avoid importing products from there, at least not in the short term. So the cost would be greater, we would shoot in the foot,» said economist Juliana Inhaz to the Brazilian news site UOL.

In an Anti-Trump function, the Brazilian government also intends to point to a greater logistics and commercial unit in Latin America. The official visit of the Chilean President Gabriel Boric to Brasilia, on April 22 and 23, will focus on the almost completed works of the land route that will link the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans in South America. This is the so -called «Bioceanic Corridor Capricorn», which aims to unite the Brazilian ports of Santos, Paranaguá, São Francisco Do Sul and Itajaí, in the Atlantic, crossing Paraguay and Argentina, and leads to the Chilean ports of Iquique, Mussels and Antofagasta, in the Pacific. This new South American Route is one of the five provided for in the Regional Integration Plan promoted by the Brazilian Planning Minister, Simone Tebet.

According to the newspaper or state of São Paulo, Trump’s tariffs also arrive at the right time for Lula. He intends to use anti-Trumpism to improve his image, which has fallen into the last great survey/quaest, in which 56% of Brazilians say that their government advances in the wrong direction. «The polls carried out by the presidential office of Planalto reveal that the anti-Trumpism also brings votes, especially at a time when the US president announces an increase in tariffs that will affect Brazil. It is in this context that the ‘Brazil is of the’ Brazilian ‘campaign resurfaces, which began this week on television, radio and social networks.» Its cost is 50 million reais (8.5 million dollars).